Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. Want to dive deeper? The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. First, what are bellwether counties? Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. 108,000 people. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. Ron Elving . Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images (Go to the bottom of the page. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. But that's no longer the case. It almost became religious.". Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. They're just facts about the vote. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) Until this year. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Enter Donald Trump. ET. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. All rights reserved. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. Do you know this baby? ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Thank you for supporting our journalism. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. Outstanding. who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. Read about our approach to external linking. . There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. Telegram Telegram Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. Election night is going to be information overload. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. The matters that way on their minds are real. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. 5. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. Will That Last?]. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. They simply vote on merit. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. Team up with others in your region, and help out by In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. Website Updates Paused Yes, another Hillsborough! She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1.

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